Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Wall Street flat ahead of "cliff" talks restart

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were little changed on Wednesday ahead of the resumption of negotiations over the "fiscal cliff".

President Barack Obama, after vacationing in Hawaii, is due back in Washington early Thursday for a final effort to negotiate a deal with Congress to avert or at least postpone the cliff, a series of tax increases and government spending cuts set to begin next week.

"There is so little out there in terms of driving the market, it is so quiet and the horizon is just so blank, the only thing that could really bring the market any kind of movement is something as symbolic as the President's early return to Washington from his vacation in Hawaii," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.

"No one is hitting the panic button yet and part of that lack of panic selling is the notion that the Street is getting comfortable with the likelihood of a temporary fix for the fiscal cliff - something that gets us over the date of January 1 in a way where it can be re-addressed."

A Republican plan that failed to gain traction last week triggered the recent decline in the S&P 500, highlighting market sensitivity to headlines centered around the talks.

Data showed U.S. single-family home prices rose in October, reinforcing the view the domestic real estate market is improving, as the S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.7 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> gained 15.34 points, or 0.12 percent, to 13,154.42. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> shed 0.31 points, or 0.02 percent, to 1,426.35. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> dropped 1.92 points, or 0.06 percent, to 3,010.68.

The benchmark S&P index is up 13.5 percent for the year, and has recouped nearly all of the losses suffered in the wake of the U.S. elections, when the fiscal cliff concerns moved to the forefront of investors' focus.

Retailers will be in focus as data on the holiday shopping season begins to come in. Holiday-related sales rose 0.7 percent from October 28 through December 24, compared with a 2 percent increase last year, according to data from MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse.

"The broad brush was Christmas wasn't all that merry for retailers and you have to ask what those margins look like if the top line didn't meet their expectations," said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh.

The Morgan Stanley retail index <.mvr> slipped 0.8 percent.

China's Sinopec Group and ConocoPhillips will research potentially vast reserves of shale gas in southwestern China over the next two years, state news agency Xinhua reported. Conoco shares edged up 3 cents to $58.47.

An outage at one of Amazon.com Inc's web service centers hit users of Netflix Inc's streaming video service on Christmas Eve and was not fully resolved until Christmas Day, a spokesman for the movie rental company said on Tuesday.

Amazon lost 1 percent to $256 and Netflix shed 0.7 percent to $89.57.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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South Africa’s President Says Mandela Looking ‘Much Better’

JOHANNESBURG — President Jacob Zuma of South Africa gave a largely upbeat assessment on Tuesday of the health of Nelson Mandela, the nation’s first black president and anti-apartheid icon, who has spent more than two weeks in the hospital for a lung infection and gallstones.

Mr. Zuma said in a statement that Mr. Mandela, 94, “is looking much better” and that “the doctors are happy with the progress he is making.”

The president visited Mr. Mandela on Christmas morning at a Pretoria hospital along with Mr. Mandela’s wife, the children’s rights activist Graça Machel.

“We found him in good spirits,” Mr. Zuma said in the statement. “He shouted my clan name, Nxamalala, as I walked into the ward.”

Mr. Mandela has been in increasingly frail health, and his latest hospitalization has been the longest since he was released from prison in 1990. His health is closely watched; local news organizations have been camped outside the hospital.

He has suffered recurrent lung infections, a legacy of the tuberculosis he contracted in prison. The government tightly controls information about his condition, releasing only occasional updates. When Mr. Mandela was first hospitalized on Dec. 8, the government said that he was in no danger, but Mr. Zuma later said that Mr. Mandela’s condition was serious.

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Season's Greetings and Personal Pics! Star Families Share Photos

From picking out a tree to posing with Santa, see how these celeb parents and their tots spread cheer together

Credit: Courtesy Snooki

Updated: Wednesday Dec 19, 2012 | 05:30 PM EST
By: Anya Leon

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

Read More..

Yen on defensive on U.S. fiscal worry, helps Nikkei

TOKYO (Reuters) - Uncertainty over whether U.S. lawmakers will strike a deal by an end-of-year deadline to avert a severe fiscal retrenchment undermined the yen and bolstered Japanese shares on Tuesday in low volume, with many participants away on Christmas holiday.

The dollar rose to a 20-month high of 84.965 yen early on Tuesday in Asia, as Japanese markets caught up with global investors who had reacted overnight to incoming Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's weekend comments that raised the pressure on the Bank of Japan.

During a meeting on Tuesday with officials from Japan's major business lobby, Keidanren, Abe reiterated calls on the BOJ to conduct bold monetary easing to beat deflation by setting an inflation target of 2 percent.

The head of Abe's coalition partner said on Tuesday the coalition party and Abe had agreed to set a 2 percent inflation target and compile a large stimulus budget to help the economy return to growth and overcome deflation.

The yen has come under pressure as a result of expectations that the BOJ will be compelled to adopt more drastic monetary stimulus measures next year.

The dollar was expected to stay firm this week as investors repatriate dollars, and as the U.S. fiscal impasse is likely to continue to sap investor appetite for risky assets and raise the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

"The dollar is seen relatively well bid, with all focus on the fiscal cliff," said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Tokyo.

"Negotiations may be carried over the weekend, but markets still expect a deal to be struck by December 31. It is unthinkable that the U.S. will risk driving its economic growth sharply lower by not agreeing to avoid it."

U.S. lawmakers and President Barack Obama were on Christmas holiday and talks were unlikely to resume until later in the week.

House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner failed to gain support for a tax plan at the end of last week, raising fears that the United States may face the "fiscal cliff" of some $600 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to start on January 1.

Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> resumed trading after a three-day weekend with a 1.1 percent gain, recapturing the key 10,000 mark it ceded on Friday after Boehner's failure sparked a broad market sell-off and the Tokyo benchmark closed down 1 percent. The Nikkei was likely to be supported as long as the yen stayed weak. <.t/>

"Ongoing optimism about the weak yen is lifting hopes that exporters' earnings will be better than expected," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager at SMBC Nikko Securities.

Analysts say a near-term correction may be possible as the index is now in "overbought" territory after gaining 16.2 percent over the last six weeks, hitting a nine-month high last Friday. Its 14-day relative strength index was at 72.34, above the 70 level that signals an overbought condition.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> nudged up 0.1 percent, driven higher by surging Shanghai shares, as most Asian bourses were shut for Christmas.

The Shanghai Composite Index <.ssec> soared over 2 percent to five-month highs as investors bought property stocks on mounting optimism about the sector. Taiwan shares <.twii> jumped 1.3 percent on gains in technology and financial shares.

Asset performance in 2012: http://link.reuters.com/muc46s

2012 commodities returns: http://link.reuters.com/faz36s

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

U.S. HOLDS 2013 KEY

Goro Ohwada, president and CEO at Japan-based fund of hedge funds Aino Investment Corp, said investors were likely to focus on economic fundamentals and the United States for cues on investment direction in 2013.

"There is a feeling that an investment strategy based on economic fundamentals may finally work next year, with asset prices more closely reflecting fair value. The problem is, we don't know yet which asset is a better bet than others," Ohwada said, adding that oil and gold appeared to be near their highs.

Naohiro Niimura, a partner at research and consulting firm Market Risk Advisory, said commodities and energy prices will likely move in tight ranges in 2013, with investors eyeing political events, including the U.S. fiscal cliff outlook, Italian parliamentary election set for February 24-25, and Germany's elections in September.

"The macroeconomic policies taken this year around the world to support growth are expected to result in a moderate recovery in 2013 to reduce an excessive downside risk to prices. This will likely keep commodities, gold and energy prices near their highs," Niimura said.

(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa in Tokyo; Editing by Edmund Klamann and Daniel Magnowski)

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U.S. Civilian Is Killed at Police Headquarters in Kabul

KABUL, Afghanistan — A woman identified as a police officer shot and killed an American civilian adviser at police headquarters in Kabul on Monday, Afghan police officials said, breaking a relative lull in the so-called insider killings that have strained the relationship between Americans and Afghans here.

Shah Marai/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Afghan policemen at the site where a female police officer reportedly shot and killed an American civilian adviser on Monday.

A spokesman for the American-led NATO force in Afghanistan, Col. Thomas W. Collins, confirmed that the attack had taken place but said that the victim’s name was being withheld according to military policy. He described the attacker as “a suspected member of the Afghan uniformed police” and said the suspect was in Afghan custody.

Insider attacks, in which members of the Afghan security services have turned against their foreign allies, have greatly increased in the past year, with 61 American and other coalition members killed, not including the episode on Monday, compared with 35 deaths the previous year, according to NATO figures.

Monday’s attack — the first insider attack known to be committed by a woman — came after a lull in insider shootings after the military instituted a series of precautions meant to reduce them. The most recent episode was on Nov. 11, when a British soldier was killed in Helmand Province.

A person at Kabul police headquarters, where the shooting occurred at about 10 a.m., said the suspect, a woman named Nargis, was a police officer who had been detached to work in the Interior Ministry’s legal and gender equality department. The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to release information, said the attacker had used a pistol and had shot the adviser, an engineer working in construction, in the head at close range.

He said the suspect had been arrested at the scene by Afghan police officers. Although the person did not specify a motive, he said that it was not related to terrorism and that the suspect had no known connections with insurgents.

American and Afghan officials have been struggling to figure out how large a factor Taliban infiltration or coercion has been in the increase in insider killings this year. Although insurgent contact has been clear in some cases, many of the attacks have seemed to come out of personal animosity or outrage, attributed to culture clash or growing Afghan anger at what they see as an unwelcome occupation by the United States and its allies.

In other violence on Monday, a coalition member was killed in an insurgent attack in eastern Afghanistan, and an Afghan Local Police commander killed five fellow officers at a checkpoint in Jowzjan Province in the north. Dur Mohammad, the commander at the checkpoint, shot and killed five officers under his command, according to Gen. Abdul Aziz Ghairat, the provincial police chief. He said the commander fled after the shooting. General Ghairat did not offer a motive but said that Mr. Mohammad had connections with the Taliban in the area.

The Afghan Local Police program, which seeks to bring armed elements — including some former insurgents — into government service, has drawn criticism because of a series of episodes in which the armed elements have switched allegiances, sometimes repeatedly.

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8 New Etiquette Rules for Using Gadgets in the Office

As the use of personal technology increases at work, it’s important to observe some new etiquette rules about how we use it. Here are eight of the most important rules to follow at work when it comes to cell phones, email, and other modern technology.

1. Using speaker phone when others can hear you. Playing back your voicemail messages on speaker phone or conducting an entire call on speaker phone is distracting to people trying to work around you. Even if you’re in an office with the door closed, speakerphone noises tend to travel. Don’t value your hands-free convenience over the ability of others to focus on their work.

2. Keeping your cell phone out so you can glance at it during meetings. Glancing down at your phone while you’re supposed to be focused on a meeting signals that you’re bored, not fully engaged, or don’t respect the time of the people you’re meeting with. If you must keep your phone out because you’re expecting an important call or text, explain that at the start of the meeting so that people don’t assume you’re just being rude.

3. Don’t overuse “reply all.” When multiple people are included on an email chain, they don’t all need to see your reply of “thanks” or “will do.” Only use “reply all” if everyone included truly needs to see your response; otherwise, stick with “reply” so your response goes only to the sender and doesn’t clutter multiple in-boxes.

4. Don’t email and phone with the same message; pick one or the other. Nothing is more annoying than starting to read an email, only to have the email’s sender pop his head in your office to repeat the same message.

5. Turn off your cell phone’s ringer if you leave it behind while you’re away from your desk. Ask any office worker, and you’ll hear stories about the annoying guy who leaves his phone behind with his ringer on full-volume while he goes to meetings … leaving his co-workers forced to hear repeated renditions of “Who Let the Dogs Out” or whatever else he’s chosen for his ringtone.

6. Placing calls from a noisy location. If you make a call, ensure you’re somewhere where you and the person you’re speaking with will be able to hear each other–and where you can give your full focus. It’s irritating to get a call from someone who immediately puts you on hold to order coffee because she just reached the front of the line.

7. Keep religious and political messages out of your email signature. Including religious or political messages is likely to offend or at least irritate some of your recipients, and introduces topics that don’t belong in a professional setting. Keep your sign-off neutral and professional.

8. Don’t use your work email as your personal email. In most offices, sending occasional personal emails from your work account is fine, but you should use your personal account for most personal things. If you treat your work email as your default personal account, chances are good that when you leave your job and your inbox and sent folder are full of personal messages, one of your co-workers will be stuck reading through all of them, as they clean out your account for your replacement. In the best case scenario, that’s merely a nuisance for a co-worker –but in the worst case scenario, it could lead to embarrassing revelations.

Alison Green writes the popular Ask a Manager blog, where she dispenses advice on career, job search, and management issues. She’s also the co-author of Managing to Change the World: The Nonprofit Manager’s Guide to Getting Results, and former chief of staff of a successful nonprofit organization, where she oversaw day-to-day staff management, hiring, firing, and employee development.

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Disney World's New Fantasyland: The Princesses Open Their Own Castles

By Stephen M. Silverman

12/24/2012 at 10:25 AM EST

From left: Ginnifer Goodwin, Thomas Staggs, Jordin Sparks and Mickey Mouse

Kent Phillips/Disney Parks/Getty

Poor Cinderella may not have a stocking to hang by the chimney with care, but she does have that choice bit of Florida real estate: her own castle smack in the middle of Walt Disney World's Magic Kingdom.

This season, she isn't the only Disney princess with a stronghold to call home. Ariel from The Little Mermaid and Belle from Beauty and the Beast now boast their own splashy attractions in the recently launched New Fantasyland, which more than doubles the original 10 acres of the most popular section of the most popular park in the world's most popular resort. (Yes, expect crowds.)

"To all those who are young, and young at heart," Once Upon a Time star Ginnifer Goodwin – joined by Jordin Sparks, Walt Disney Parks and Resorts chairman Thomas Staggs and Mickey Mouse – said at the Dec. 6 dedication ceremony. The actress also said, "The castles here are far more beautiful than they are on Once Upon a Time" – with no trolls or giants to worry about.

As for the New Fantasyland landscape, which includes an Enchanted Forest, Ariel oversees a sea grotto, where her Under the Sea – Adventure of the Little Mermaid and meet-and-greet photo-taking perch can be found. For the musical adventure, guests board giant clamshells to relive the 1991 feature, with the characters brought to life through both animation and Audio-Animatronics.

Belle's tale is represented by the French-inspired Be My Guest restaurant inside the richly detailed castle of the Beast, replete with gently falling snow outside the ornate ballroom. There's also the ominous west wing (where the Beast's portrait morphs into one of the handsome prince). Less elaborate meals may be taken at the nearby Gaston's Tavern, in the village square.

Inside Belle's cottage, there's Enchanted Tales with Belle, an immersive story-telling experience all but stolen by the highly advanced Audio-Animatronic figure of Lumière, the loquacious candlestick holder.

Cinderella really doesn't go wanting, either. At night, her castle turns into the backdrop for a spectacular holiday lightshow that even manages to convert one of its turrets into an accelerating rocket.

More royal action still lies ahead in the New Year, with the Princess Fairytale Hall, where Tatiana from The Princess and the Frog and Rapunzel from Brave will be able to meet and greet their subjects. Meanwhile, currently to the west of Ariel is the brand new Storybook Circus area, home to Dumbo, which also has doubled in size with two teams of flying elephants. As it is, the waiting queues have been abandoned in favor of one large, circus-tented play area for kids.

The heart of New Fantasyland remains a construction site for the upcoming (for 2014) the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train. Staggs describes it as a "family friendly" roller coaster, less intense than Thunder Mountain and featuring patented Disney technology that will allow the rider to swing in the cars, as if on a real mine train. Inside its tunnels, the train will slow so guests can observe Snow White's pals in humorous action.

Until then, those with an immediate need for speed may monorail it over to Epcot, for the newly refurbished Test Track. Here, drivers design their own Chevrolets before zooming through a Tron-like raceway at a white-knuckle speed of up to 65 m.p.h. Try getting Santa's sleigh to do that.

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

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Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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